United nations - will it stand by 2040?

1.2kṀ4846

2040

71%

Remains without any contender organization

15%

It still exists, but members are less than 60% of the recognized countries or contain less than 60% of world population, and there are no contender organizations that meet these criteria

13%

Remains existing, but there is/are other organization thay claim the same missions, and have membership of at least 60% of the countries that represent at least 60% of total human population, present on all continents

Remains, and Its UPGRADED, covering 99% of habitable earth and maintaining high conflict resolution capabilities and in possession of nuclear weapons

Disbanded, and there is no alternate organization which achieves global concensus (present on all continents, at least 60% of recognized countries are members, and they represent 60% of human population)

Disbanded and replaced with another organization (the League of Nations trajectory) that achives worldwide acceptance

If there are other feasible trajectories feel free to add them. If there are duplicates or some other non logical offered options, i reserve the right to remove them or to resolve them to NA

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There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040

54% chance

Will any country adopt a superaligned constitution by 2040?

40% chance

Will there be a new UN-recognized country before 2030?

72% chance

Will the East African Federation be a member of the UN before 2030?

6% chance

Will the UN add a new member state before 2030?

77% chance

Will a new Country be recognized by the UN before 2030?

78% chance

Which states have veto power in the UN Security Council in 2050?

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@3d Maybe in the event of a new cold war, where one power block includes 60% of population and countries.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Is there some reason why people are betting against its existence? 2040 isn't that far away.

Because even now it does not show sense for priorities and it does not abide to its rules ....

The problem is not the organization but the political will. If this is lacking, there will be neither a reform of the un nor a successor organization. I think the latter is only conceivable in the event of a turning point such as a world war with new emerging superpowers.

Okay so your reason for betting no is stupid IMHO, I expect it's "power" to grow weaker but I can't see the world switching to some new coalition in ~15 years.

CMon, half manifold is betting that there are going to be catastrophies in the next 10 to 20years...

describe us your most likely scenario where UN get's disolved in 15 years

Trump freaks out and stops funding it.

This happend already multiple times in history. the US contributes only 20% of the UN budget. the other countries will not dissolve it because of this 😆

Other countries have their own trumps this time.

It could still be the only one existing but fail to meet the membership criteria you set in other options.

Do you suggest "It remains existing, but less than 60% of the recognized countries are members and/or representative of less tham 60% of worldwide pop, amd there are no contender organizations that meet these criteria" ? Well that sounds not covered by existing options, feel free to add it