There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040
15
1kαΉ5432040
54%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
what counts: 1. new permanent member 2. member removed 3. expansion / shrinking of membership 4. removal of the veto power 5. dissolution of the UN
Update 2024-13-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Russia breaks apart, the market will follow the part which retains:
Moscow/the capital
Control of the military
The cultural core
If there is a division at such a high level that it's not clear which part represents Russia, the market may be voided.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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