what counts: 1. new permanent member 2. member removed 3. expansion / shrinking of membership 4. removal of the veto power 5. dissolution of the UN
Update 2024-13-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Russia breaks apart, the market will follow the part which retains:
Moscow/the capital
Control of the military
The cultural core
If there is a division at such a high level that it's not clear which part represents Russia, the market may be voided.
1,000People are also trading
you can forecast members with veto power here: https://manifold.markets/Jan53274/which-states-have-veto-power-in-the
@MalachiteEagle in general I try to follow the main part. For example, the part which retains moscow/the capital/control of the military/the cultural core etc. If there is a division at such a high level that it's not clear, then we can review or NA.
@Yoav yes if taiwan takes over I would treat that as a new permanent member/member removed. it could be complicated if there is a partial merging.