There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040 | Manifold

There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040

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13

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2040

46%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

what counts: 1. new permanent member 2. member removed 3. expansion / shrinking of membership 4. removal of the veto power 5. dissolution of the UN

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Does Taiwan gov assuming the China seat in place of PRC count?

@Yoav yes if taiwan takes over I would treat that as a new permanent member/member removed. it could be complicated if there is a partial merging.

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