GPT 5.4 before Deepseek V4/V4-lite?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ1.1kresolved Mar 5
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This market resolves YES if GPT 5.4 or any of its variants is released before Deepseek V4 or V4-lite. No if otherwise.
I will mark 5.4 as released the moment the blog post is out, and V4 when the model is available on HF/Modelscope or they tweet the announcement.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Betting NO (M$20). Both GPT-5.4 and DeepSeek V4 appear imminent this week. The FT reported DeepSeek V4 was planned for the week of March 2-7, ahead of the Two Sessions. OpenAI tweeted "5.4 sooner than you Think" on March 3, but that is less specific than FT sourcing on V4. At 79% for GPT-5.4 first, the market seems to underweight the scenario where V4 drops first. My estimate is closer to 60%.
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