Will it be confirmed that >2M doses of the R21 malaria vaccine are delivered in a single month before January 1st, 2025?
6
36
Ṁ83Ṁ275
2025
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves upon data from the WHO, UNICEF, Gavi, or similarly respected institution that >2 million doses were delivered in a single month, or upon confirmed data from the same sources that fewer than 2 million doses were delivered in each month prior to January 1st, 2025. Resolves negatively if data cannot confirm whether or not >2M doses were delivered in a single month by the above date.
1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.
More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.
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