What will be the lowest cost per dose observed for the R21 malaria vaccine before January 1st, 2026? (currently $3.90)

7

Ṁ375Ṁ1.1k

resolved Jan 12

100%63%

$3.51-3.90 USD

2%

<$1.50 USD

3%

$1.51-2.00 USD

4%

$2.01-2.50 USD

13%

$2.51-3.00 USD

12%

$3.01-3.50 USD

2%Other

The current purchase price is $3.90 USD per UNICEF, but sources expect it should decrease over time as production scales.
Resolves on January 1st, 2026. Data from UNICEF, Gavi, the Serum Institute of India (the manufacturer), or the WHO will be used to evaluate purchase prices for the R21 vaccine. If multiple reliable sources are available and provide different numbers, a best effort will be made by the 1Day Sooner team to resolve the difference before averaging the numbers.
1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.
More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.

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https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/gavi-unicef-sign-deal-cut-malaria-vaccine-price-2025-11-24/

It looks like the current price is still "around $4", but will reduce to 2.99$ "within roughly a year's time" (from November).

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