Will someone die as the direct consequence of a Letzte Generation protest by 2025?
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The Letzte Generation (Last Generation) is a climate protest groups famous for their civil disobedience methods including temporary roadblocks. This will resolve YES if before January 1, 2025 someone dies as a direct consequence of one of their protests, NO otherwise. I will try to go with what I consider to be a consensus of German language mainstream media institutions.

 

I think it’s unlikely that serious outlets would be definite in their phrasing given that causality is hard to determine. So I will also include a death that the media broadly reports might well have been caused by protests. I will not count deaths where the causality feels remote, like if protests lead to higher energy prices, leading to deaths from cold or something.

 

Previously, a cyclist died after a specialist rescue vehicle was delayed by a protest, though I think the consensus is that this did not cause the death. Due to the subjective nature of the resolution criteria I will not bet in this market myself.

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If a protester dies during a confrontation with police or even with bystanders will this count? Let’s say that some guy runs them over.

reposted

Not Letzte Generation, but someone died in a traffic accident caused by similar tactics by protesting farmers: https://www.ksta.de/panorama/a66-toedlicher-unfall-nach-bauern-protest-blockade-lkw-fahrer-tot-stauende-oel-ausgelaufen-716646

reposted

Not Letzte Generation, but someone died in a traffic accident caused by similar tactics by protesting farmers: https://www.ksta.de/panorama/a66-toedlicher-unfall-nach-bauern-protest-blockade-lkw-fahrer-tot-stauende-oel-ausgelaufen-716646

I made another market to try to disaggregate whether it’s mostly a risk protesters take for themselves (like another hunger strike) or for others:

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