The following Metaculus forecast will open soon:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13911/first-commercial-in-orbit-refueling/
This Manifold market will resolve PROB to the Metaculus "Community Prediction" of commercial in-orbit refueling happening before 2036 once it is revealed on May 7, 2023. This procedure is known as Reciprocal Scoring. Since Manifold incentivizes betting to the correct expected value, this is a proper scoring rule assuming Metaculus, which has a solid track record of good forecasts, is an unbiased estimator.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ23 | |
| 2 | Ṁ16 | |
| 3 | Ṁ7 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
@Mqrius Thanks for the pointer! I just updated the question description to be clearer. I meant the probability that Metaculus assigns for this to happen before the end of the date range. So this resolves to 1 - x where x is the Community Estimate for “Not ≤ Jan 1, 2036”.