
Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION]
15
1kṀ5022027
43%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I don't mean "achieves SOTA on one benchmark", or "is the best FOSS model", I mean "is the equivalent of what GPT-4 is right now".
The SSM must be in contention for the position as the most generally capable LLM. I will not trade in this market because the resolution condition isn't entirely objective.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@HanchiSun I think he means like Mamba: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.00752.pdf
They are vaguely related to RNNs though
Related questions
Related questions
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?
31% chance
Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?
84% chance
Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?
26% chance
Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025?
89% chance
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
40% chance
Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?
50% chance
Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?
Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
3% chance