Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, before March 1, 2026, Iranian protesters successfully force Ali Khamenei to end his term as Supreme Leader through sustained mass demonstrations. Resolution requires clear evidence that Khamenei has relinquished the position due to protest pressure—not through natural death, illness, or constitutional removal by the Assembly of Experts.

Resolution sources: Monitor official Iranian state media (IRIB), international news agencies (Reuters, AP, BBC), and human rights organizations (HRANA) for announcements of Khamenei's departure from office and its stated cause.

Background

Demonstrations erupted across multiple cities in Iran beginning December 28, 2025, described as the largest uprising since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Initially sparked by frustration over record-high inflation, food prices, and currency depreciation, the protests quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the current regime. As of mid-January 2026, at least 2,403 protesters had been killed according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).

Khamenei, 86, has survived several past waves of unrest, with this being the fifth major uprising since 2009. The Supreme Leader is effectively Iran's leader for life per the constitution. While the Assembly of Experts is constitutionally tasked with supervising and dismissing the supreme leader, in practice the Assembly has never been known to challenge or publicly oversee any of the supreme leader's decisions.

Considerations

Despite Iran's nationwide protests and years of external pressure, there are as yet no clear signs of fracture in the Islamic Republic's security elite that could bring an end to one of the world's most resilient governments. For the regime to fall, protesters would have to generate enough momentum to overcome the state's entrenched advantages: powerful institutions, a sizeable constituency loyal to clerical rule, and the geographic and demographic scale of a country of 90 million people.