Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if either of the following conditions occurs on or before 11:59 PM ET on April 15, 2026:
Ceasefire Agreement: A formal or publicly acknowledged ceasefire agreement is reached between the United States and Iran. Resolution requires reporting from reputable international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, or major credible publications like The New York Times or Wall Street Journal) confirming that both parties have agreed to cease hostilities.
Nuclear Weapon Use: A nuclear weapon is detonated by any party within the context of the ongoing US-Iran war. This includes any nuclear device explosion attributed to the United States, Israel, or Iran in the theater of conflict.
If neither of these conditions is met by the specified time, the market will resolve to NO.
1,000