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MANIFOLD
Will the US mass airlift chips from Taiwan if China implements a blockade?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ32
2050
37%
chance

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the United States government has organized, funded, or directly participated in a large-scale airlift of semiconductors or semiconductor wafers from Taiwan in response to a Chinese blockade, attempted blockade, or imminent blockade before January 1st 2050.

“Large-scale airlift” means an exceptional evacuation effort involving multiple dedicated flights or a clearly coordinated operation intended to move a substantial quantity of strategically important chips out of Taiwan. Routine commercial shipments, isolated cargo flights, personnel evacuations carrying incidental chip cargo, or unconfirmed contingency plans do not count.

A “blockade” includes a sustained Chinese military or coercive operation that materially restricts maritime or air access to Taiwan, even if China describes it using different terminology. A brief military exercise or temporary shipping disruption does not count unless reliable evidence indicates it functioned as an actual blockade.

Evidence should come from credible reporting, official statements, flight or shipping records, company disclosures, or other independently verifiable sources. The operation does not need to succeed or remove all available chips; it only needs to have been genuinely undertaken at scale.

Resolves NO if a qualifying Chinese blockade occurs before January 1st 2050 and there is no qualifying US-backed mass airlift of chips from Taiwan in response.

Resolves N/A if January 1st 2050 is reached without a qualifying Chinese blockade having occurred.

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