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MANIFOLD
Will France generate 50GW of nuclear power in 2040?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ92
2040
59%
chance

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that France generated an average of at least 50 GW of nuclear electrical power between January 1st 2040 and December 31st 2040.


“Average power output” means total nuclear electricity generated in France during calendar year 2040 divided by the total number of hours in that year. Since 2040 is a leap year with 8,784 hours, an average output of 50 GW is equivalent to at least 439.2 TWh of nuclear electricity generation during 2040.


The question should be resolved using authoritative annual electricity-generation data, preferably from RTE, the French government, EDF, Eurostat, the IAEA, or another widely recognized energy-statistics source. If reported figures differ between sources, priority should be given to RTE or another official French national electricity statistic.


Only electricity actually generated by nuclear power plants located in France during 2040 counts. Installed nuclear capacity, nameplate capacity, potential output, imports of nuclear-generated electricity, or projected generation do not count.


Resolves NO if the best available authoritative data shows that France generated less than 439.2 TWh of nuclear electricity in 2040, corresponding to an average nuclear power output below 50 GW.

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