Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, France officially transitions to a new constitutional regime that is formally designated or widely recognized by official state bodies as a new Republic (such as a "Sixth Republic" / Sixième République) or otherwise formally replaces the current Fifth Republic.
For this market to resolve to YES, the transition must be codified, such as through:
The promulgation of an entirely new constitution replacing the Constitution of October 4, 1958.
An official declaration or legal instrument establishing a new republican order.
This market will resolve to NO if the Fifth French Republic remains the active constitutional regime. Standard amendments or revisions to the current 1958 Constitution (even major ones) that do not result in a declared transition to a new Republic will not trigger a YES resolution.
Sources of truth:
Official publications in the Journal Officiel de la République Française (Légifrance)
Official announcements from the French Constitutional Council (Conseil Constitutionnel)
Verification by major international news outlets (e.g., Le Monde, Reuters, France 24).
Background
France is currently governed under the Fifth Republic, established in 1958 by a constitution designed by Charles de Gaulle to ensure a strong executive branch. In recent years, deep political divisions, protests over structural reforms, and the frequent use of executive powers to bypass parliament have renewed public debate over the system's democratic deficit.
Left-wing factions, most notably Jean-Luc Mélenchon's La France Insoumise, have actively campaigned for the establishment of a "Sixth Republic" to redistribute power from the presidency to parliament and the public. While constitutional modifications are relatively common, transitioning to a completely new Republic requires a fundamental constitutional rupture—typically involving a constituent assembly, a national referendum, and the drafting of an entirely new supreme law.
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1,000