Resolution criteria

Niger's military junta has nationalized Orano's Somair subsidiary, which operates the country's only remaining operational uranium mine. This market resolves YES if Niger's government officially sells or transfers nuclear material (uranium ore, uranium concentrate, or refined uranium) to France during 2026. Resolution requires a confirmed transaction documented through official government statements, trade records, or credible reporting from major news outlets. The market resolves NO if no such sale occurs by December 31, 2026.

Background

After taking power in a 2023 coup, Niger's junta revoked Orano's licence for the Imouraren deposit and nationalized its Somair subsidiary. With the withdrawal of the Imouraren permit in April and the nationalization in June, France has lost almost all presence and access to uranium. A shipment of at least 1,000 tonnes of yellowcake has been blocked for several weeks at Niamey airport. Niger turned to Russia and Iran for new partnerships, with Niger's junta in advanced talks with Russia's state-owned nuclear company, Rosatom, to sell uranium directly to Moscow.

Considerations

Niger is landlocked and its border with Benin, its main sea access, is closed, hindering exports of its minerals. Niger has closed the border with Benin, and an alternative route through Togo goes through regions where jihadists are active. These logistical constraints significantly complicate any uranium exports regardless of destination.

This description was generated by AI.