Putin announced a unilateral ceasefire for May 9th. Will it hold?
3
100Ṁ120May 28
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
26%
Generally acknowledged significant reduction in fighting
63%
No significant reduction in fighting
11%
Source: https://www.rbc.ru/politics/28/04/2025/680f63cc9a79477f368be07c
The precise duration is May 8th 00:00 -- May 10th 23:59
Necessary conditions for outcome 1:
No long-range strikes from either side
No new offensives
Post-factum comments from both sides after the ceasefire is over acknowledging a reduction in fighting
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire or other cessation of hostilities before the 100th day of Trump’s term?
1% chance
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
52% chance
If there is an offered ceasefire and Russia doesn't accept, will the US pressure Russia in any way April 30th?
16% chance
Will there be a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, even if temporary, before the end of Halloween 2025?
59% chance
War in Ukraine ends by May 9, 2025?
3% chance
Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire with an intended duration of at least 28 days before October 1st, 2025?
45% chance
If Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire, will it last the agreed duration?
43% chance
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
Will Russia/Ukraine break their ceasefire before the end of 2025?
50% chance
If there is a second Peace Summit, will the Russia-Ukraine War end within 3 months afterward?
46% chance