Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire or other cessation of hostilities before the 100th day of Trump’s term?
38
100Ṁ11kMay 1
1.4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is one of 25 props in the tenth annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2025-narcissist-forecasting-contest
It will be adjudicated by judges as described in the fine print of the entry form:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire in Trump's First 90 Days?
1% chance
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 weeks of his inauguration?
8% chance
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
70% chance
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire in Trump's First 90 Days?
1% chance
Will Ukraine and Russia have a cease-fire or peace before 2026?
46% chance
Will Trump End the War in Ukraine Within 90 Days of Taking Office?
1% chance
Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire with an intended duration of at least 28 days before October 1st, 2025?
33% chance
Will Russia/Ukraine break their ceasefire before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will Ukraine and Russia reach a ceasefire -- in agreement or in practice -- by August 2025? 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦
32% chance