🤖 AI

Sam Altman

💼  Business

Startups

🤖 OpenAI

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

🖥️ Technology

GPT-5 Speculation

ChatGPT

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

Various people have been making markets about whether their relatives will know who Sam Altman is so I thought I'd invert the question. Does Sam Altman know about 

He almost certainly doesn't know who I am right now. To make things interesting then, I've set the time frame for 5 years (3rd of May 2029). If there is good evidence that Sam Altman knows of me by my name, or by a pseudonym before then, this market resolves positively.  The knowledge does not have to be detailed. Merely sharing or commenting on an article would be sufficient. If there is no publicly available evidence Sam A knows who I am by the closing date, the market resolves negatively regardless of what in Sam's heart of hearts.

Are there any reasons to think Sam Altman might learn who I am by the specified date?

* I'm an early career academic working on, among other things, the philosophy of AI with core interests in areas like safety and the philosophy of mind and AI. It is conceivable he might see some of my work.

*My Substack, Philosophy Bear, has 2000 followers. It regularly posts about AI. Not exactly a powerhouse, but in the game and growing.

* Daniel Kokotajlo, a gentleman and a scholar, who quit OpenAI over concerns about their dedication to AI safety, is a paid subscriber to my blog, thus I am one degree of separation away from Sam Altman. I have probably about 3 or so other one-degree of separation links.

* I find the idea of this market resolving positively moderately amusing, and I am influenced by vanity just like everyone else, and will therefore take, within the bounds of good social and aesthetic taste, modest steps towards alerting Sam Altman of my existence.

*If the singularity happens before then and some or all of us are cognitively uplifted its possible that Sam Altman will know who every single person on the planet is.

*This market is potentially hyperstitious. If it becomes big and memetic enough, it may well resolve itself.

Are there any reasons to think Sam Altman will not learn who I am?

*There are plenty of people writing on AI who Sam Altman doesn't know about, probably even some (moderately) prominent people. Come on, be serious.

AI risk

This question resolves to YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to AI automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

Asking "at least two separate questions" means that the moderator must pose two semantically distinct and individual queries, each intended to elicit a unique response, specifically about artificial intelligence. In other words, simply repeating the same question doesn't count as two separate questions, even if the question is asked twice, first to one candidate, and then a second time to the other candidate. Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the first one counts as two separate questions for the purpose of this question. For example, a clear positive instance would be asking first, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" and then later asking, "What are your proposals to mitigate job loss due to automation from AI?" These are two separate questions because they cover different facets of artificial intelligence—existential risk and employment. A clear negative example would be if the moderator simply asked, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" to one candidate, and then later said "Same question to you" to the other candidate. Even though the question is asked twice, it's not considered two "separate" questions because it's a repetition of the same query.

When it comes to questions related to automation and job losses, the key factor that determines whether the question is "directly related to artificial intelligence" is whether the moderator mentions AI technologies or AI companies, such as ChatGPT, OpenAI, generative AI, or neural networks; any question will automatically qualify if the moderator says the word "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in the question. General questions about automation or job losses that don't clearly link back to AI won't be considered "directly related to artificial intelligence". For example, the following questions would NOT count as being directly related to artificial intelligence:

If there are no 2024 general presidential election debates, this question resolves to N/A.

US Politics

🗳️ Politics

presidential debate

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

🎷 Music

👸 Taylor Swift

🧑‍🎤 Celebrities

Billionaires

This market will be changing to adjust to the pivot. Details soon.

Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on May 3 2024

Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on May 3 2024

#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.

#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.

#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.

#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.

#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.

#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.

#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)

#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).

#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.

#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.

Jimmy Carter

Public Figures

Longevity

Jimmy Carter Daily

He was nominated once for Best Actor in 1997 for The English Patient and lost

🎥 Movies

Academy Awards

📺 Television & Film

🏟️ Sports

pickleball

🍝 Food

Athletics

This market resolves to the streaming service that has higher viewership in Nielsen's April 2024 viewership report (whatever looks similar to that link).

🎨 Culture

Resolves "Yes" if we have reason to believe Jimmy Carter was alive and existing at 11:59 EST on May 31, 2024

Resolves "No" if any of the followings things cause Jimmy Carter to stop existing. These things include, but are not limited to:

If there are any other circumstances that might resolve this No you are curious about feel free to ask in the comments.

US presidents

2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.

🪸 Climate

Global Warming 

🧪 Science

Companion paper here with description of synthesis:

Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have written below maintains the spirit of the market and preserves its predictivity against weird edge cases. 

This question is specifically about LK-99. In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution. 

original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it’s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99. 

Synthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above. 

The original intent of this market was to bet on whether LK-99 exhibited the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, but there have been a few questions on what happens if LK-99 is regions of 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix, so it doesn’t display the expected R = 0 behavior below Tc. 

At this point, I’m going to hew to the original resolution criteria, in order of importance. 

While superconductor-insulator transitions have been observed, I’m not really familiar with them. Additionally, we don’t have good evidence that it is impossible to observe R=0 in LK-99, since at least 

 measurements show decreasing resistivity as a function of temperature. If we end up in a world where LK-99 convincingly displays a Meissner effect, but doesn’t show the expected resistivity behavior, I will solicit opinions from subject matter experts. After all, it would seem perverse to resolve NO if the majority of superconductivity experts think this is a YES.

I reserve the right to resolve to a probability if the experts I ask are split on the question of superconductivity.

I reserve the right to resolve according to whatever Wikipedia says about this material by Jan 1, 2025, especially if the experts I ask blow me off.

I reserve the right to revisit the resolution criteria if LK-99 or LK-99-like materials end up rewriting what we thought we knew about superconductivity. 

********************************************

Pasting my comment on resolution criteria

We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?

Specifically, replications should convincingly demonstrate:

If synthesizing the compound, there should be evidence that they did make something essentially the same as what is reported in the original paper. 

 not be required for a quantum well superconductor. I think I see how this could be the case. Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists. 

I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal. The arXiv is sufficient for me. However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc. In my utopia, labs that claim to have confirmed/disconfirmed this effect would also publish their raw data with their arXiv submissions, but I'm not holding my breath. 

Since high Tc superconductivity is not my specific field of expertise, I'm willing to defer to a consensus of subject matter experts on whether a pre-print is convincing or not, and I am willing to contact some beyond the usual twitter personalities.

Science

superconductivity

LK-99

NBA Playoffs

🏀 Basketball

2023-2024 NBA Season

Premier League 2023-2024

Premier League

Resolves YES if any driver from Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren or Aston Martin fails to make it into Q2 during qualifying at the Miami Grand Prix.

If there is a replacement/reserve driver for any of these five teams, and that driver fails to get into Q2, the market will still resolve YES.

If a driver from one of the top 5 constructors never starts qualifying (the car never exits the garage during the session), the market will not resolve YES, and will continue.

If there is an issue that forces a car to retire from the top 5 teams after they've left the garage (and had to immediately retire for example) the market would resolve YES.

Motorsports

🏎️ Formula 1

Auto Racing

#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden

2024 US Presidential Election

The Life of Biden

Global Macro

Politics

Gerontocracy

🔦Subsidy Spotlight

2023 Market of the Year Candidates

🇺🇸 US Politics

Missouri

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

Approval Ratings

👴🏼 Joe Biden

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

This market refers specifically to the nonfarm payrolls number. The report releases on May 3 at 8:30 AM ET.

US Economy

Jobs

Resolves YES if Trump picks white male as his choice for vice president.

"White" means at least 3/4 biological grandparents are of European or Middle Eastern descent. "Male" means they identify as a male (i.e. Caitlyn Jenner wouldn't count).

Resolves NO if Trump picks a non-white or non-male person for VP.

Resolves N/A if Trump is not a presidential nominee or is for some reason unable to pick a nominee (e.g. stroke). Also resolves N/A if Trump changes his official VP pick before I can resolve the market (e.g. death of VP pick).

👴 Trump

2024 Republican Primaries

2024 Primaries

2024 US Election

United States

Vice President

US State Government

🏦 Economics

Money

🐘 Republican Party

2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

'r':4 'r-sc':3 'sc':5 'scott':2 'senat':6 'tim':1

'elis':1 'ny':5 'r':4 'r-ni':3 'repres':6 'stefanik':2

'governor':5 'kristi':1 'noem':2 'r':3 'sd':4

'd':3 'governor':5 'gretchen':1 'michigan':4 'whitmer':2

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.

Boeing

Whistleblower Markets

Based on my impression of the job market.

Economics

⚔️ Wars

🌍 World

🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

🇵🇸 Palestine

🇮🇱 Israel

Any of {MIT, Stanford, Brown, Yale, Harvard, Princeton, CMU, Berkeley, CCS}

'berkeley':10 'brown':5 'ccs':11 'cmu':9 'harvard':7 'mit':3 'princeton':8 'stanford':4 'yale':6

Every "safety" (Davis, UCSC, UIUC, UMaryland)

'davi':3 'everi':1 'safeti':2 'ucsc':4 'uiuc':5 'umaryland':6

A majority (≥11) of colleges I applied to

'cs':6 'joint':7 'major':8 'math':5 'math-c':4 'uiuc':1

The college I ultimately attend, off the waitlist

'attend':5 'colleg':2 'ultim':4 'waitlist':8

Any Ivy/MIT/Stanford while being rejected from Davis or UCSC or UIUC or UMaryland

'davi':7 'ivy/mit/stanford':2 'reject':5 'ucsc':9 'uiuc':11 'umaryland':13

Please keep this market private; don't send it to people or discuss it with anyone who isn't on the market! Maybe it’s irrational, but I've just been sort of anxious about making it for awhile now, and don’t want it to be super public.

Let me know if you have any other fun ideas for prop bets, I might add them!

I've compiled a table of relevant statistics about each college for forecasting. Feel free to ask questions, but I may opt not to answer them. Don't worry about the tiers, they're just my rough effort to quantify my interest in attending each of the colleges.

General App Information (god it feels weird to write this all out publicly)

I won't bet much, if at all, for the sake of my own well-being.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.