Will 4-day workweeks be as common by 2026 as fully remote work is now?

Based on my impression of the job market.

Market created June 2023.

Will resolve early if it becomes clear.

I won't trade in this market.

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In which job market?

@CromlynGames The overall job market.

predicts YES

@IC which country?

@CromlynGames United States (although I’m in Canada so my viewpoint won’t be perfect)

In my country, a 4 day work week means it is 4x12 hours a week, which is significantly worse than the status quo. So I am genuinely hoping this doesnt happen.

@HarishGanesan I wouldn’t count this. The total hours worked per week would have to be the same or less.

predicts NO

@IC Most of the CEOs and CFOs who seem to be in support of 4 day work-weeks, are doing it only because it increases the overall productivity. Nobody gives a shit about employee welfare. So I dont think the non-evil version of 4 day work week will ever win out. I like Elon in this topic alone. Atleast he is open about how he doesnt care about employee welfare.

Around my city and surrounding counties (roughly 1.9 million people), I would say roughly 5% are doing 4 day work weeks and advertising them as "3.5 day work week" , majority are fast casual restaurants or personal care (ie. nail, hair, massage, makeup, etc). They pay $16-$18/hr on average with 35 hours (10/10/10/5).

Also to note, probably 95% are businesses owned and/or run by someone 40 years old or younger.

At a glance I’m seeing 14.5% of Americans working from home 5d/wk https://www.statista.com/topics/7145/remote-work-in-the-us/#topicOverview

As the economy cools the balance will shift back towards employers. So if it hasn’t happened during historic labor shortages I don’t think it will (in this generation).

Are you counting 4 10 hour days a week? That's already fairly common in the manufacturing and defense industries.

@ahalekelly Yes this would count.

@ahalekelly and medicine as well. I think theres an argument that a 4 day work week is already more normal then remote work.

@EugeneBixby The market is based on my subjective impression from my experience etc. But if you can get trustworthy numbers saying it’s already true, then I will resolve to true.