Will 4-day workweeks be as common by 2026 as fully remote work is now?
Basic
90
3.2k
2026
23%
chance

Based on my impression of the job market.

Market created June 2023.

Will resolve early if it becomes clear.

I won't trade in this market.

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In which job market?

@CromlynGames The overall job market.

predicts YES

@IC which country?

@CromlynGames United States (although I’m in Canada so my viewpoint won’t be perfect)

In my country, a 4 day work week means it is 4x12 hours a week, which is significantly worse than the status quo. So I am genuinely hoping this doesnt happen.

@HarishGanesan I wouldn’t count this. The total hours worked per week would have to be the same or less.

predicts NO

@IC Most of the CEOs and CFOs who seem to be in support of 4 day work-weeks, are doing it only because it increases the overall productivity. Nobody gives a shit about employee welfare. So I dont think the non-evil version of 4 day work week will ever win out. I like Elon in this topic alone. Atleast he is open about how he doesnt care about employee welfare.

Around my city and surrounding counties (roughly 1.9 million people), I would say roughly 5% are doing 4 day work weeks and advertising them as "3.5 day work week" , majority are fast casual restaurants or personal care (ie. nail, hair, massage, makeup, etc). They pay $16-$18/hr on average with 35 hours (10/10/10/5).

Also to note, probably 95% are businesses owned and/or run by someone 40 years old or younger.

At a glance I’m seeing 14.5% of Americans working from home 5d/wk https://www.statista.com/topics/7145/remote-work-in-the-us/#topicOverview

As the economy cools the balance will shift back towards employers. So if it hasn’t happened during historic labor shortages I don’t think it will (in this generation).

Are you counting 4 10 hour days a week? That's already fairly common in the manufacturing and defense industries.

@ahalekelly Yes this would count.

@ahalekelly and medicine as well. I think theres an argument that a 4 day work week is already more normal then remote work.

@EugeneBixby The market is based on my subjective impression from my experience etc. But if you can get trustworthy numbers saying it’s already true, then I will resolve to true.