This market resolves YES if Sam Bankman-Fried is imprisoned for any crime, in any country, before January 1st 2030. Jail, or pre-conviction detainment of any sort doesn't count, nor does a suspended sentence. As soon as he is convicted, sentenced to imprisonment, and that sentence actually carried out this market resolves YES, otherwise on January 1st 2030 this market resolves NO.
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This question resolves once he actually reports to prison. I haven't read anything about that happening yet, though it seems almost certain to happen. I intend to leave this market open until it does. Though rather unlikely, he yet may die, receive a pardon, escape from jail and flee the country, or something else that means he doesn't actually end up in prison.
That said, I might not immediately notice when that happens. If you notice it before I do, please post a link here to a news article about Sam Bankman-Fried reporting to prison and I will resolve the question.
