Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032

1kṀ8817

2032

15%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if pardoned or granted clemency by a president, monarch, etc.

Resolves NO if he dies without such action (so posthumous pardons don't count) or at the end of 2032.

Prosecutorial discretion doesn't count. Jury nullification doesn't count. Judicial sentencing discretion doesn't count.

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Sam Bankman-Fried Trial (1st)

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sold Ṁ24 YES

Appearance on tucker carlson makes this substantially more likely

sold Ṁ34 YES

I'm at 30% after his appearance on Tucker Carlson. He's widely known and hated, making it more politically costly for him to be pardoned, but he is very good at playing this kind of politics and has made some inroads.

bought Ṁ55 YES

Bought up to 20% based more on feeling like SBF has a 20% chance to manipulate the Trump admin. But these tweets are also out there, and SBF_DOGE is marked as a govt account. Note that the SBF_DOGE account is shilling a memecoin, which is the likely point of the deception.

https://x.com/SBF_DOGE/status/1894225814520029553 https://x.com/SBF_FTX/status/1894204086754709951