15
81
1k
2030
23%
chance

This market resolves one year after Vladamir Putin's death. If at that time it is generally accepted that Putin likely was suffering from cancer in 2022 or 2023, whether or not that was his ultimate cause of death, this market resolves YES. Otherwise this market resolves NO. If the circumstances surrounding his death are such that a year later it's clear that we'll probably never know, or if the facts are in dispute, I may resolve this question to the market price as of the day immediately preceding his death, or some otherwise reasonable percentage resolution. As there is some level of discretion involved in this determination, I will not trade on this market.

As this is a topic that's likely never going to be known with certainty, I will use my best judgement in resolving it. Testimony from those close to Putin as reported in reputable news outlets is probably the main thing that could lead to a YES resolution, or depending on the circumstances of his death, perhaps an autopsy. If no evidence suggeting a YES resolution has come to light in the year after Putin's death this market resolves NO.

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