Will cybertrucks rust?
34
170
740
2030
36%
chance

There have been reports of minor surface rust which can be easily cleaned.

This market resolves Yes if there are instances of cybertrucks developing significant rust which can’t be easily fully cleaned off.

Examples of significant rust would include pitting, or bright/permanent discoloration.

Resolves No if no examples occur before 2030.

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bought Ṁ150 YES

@Daniel_MC I don’t think so. I think some hub rust isn’t uncommon on vehicles, although for such a new vehicle that is surprising. If there’s more information available about that rusting such as if it is especially deep or definitely if it creates a functional issue I’ll hear arguments for a Yes resolution. Although my expectation for a Yes resolution is still rust on the main body.

Two questions:

1) Does this resolve to YES if the discoloration results from surface contamination staining the panels?
2) Does this resolve to YES only if the rust is determined to be as a result of a defect, i.e. not through normal wear and tear?

Feels like "No Examples" is a very high bar to clear.

@BobSnodgrass

1) Yes if that discoloration cannot be easily cleaned. The surface rust I’ve seen examples of so far can be cleaned off with standard stainless steel cleaning products. I would only expect permanent discoloration if the corrosion penetrates deeper than surface level.

2) No. This market can resolve Yes if significant rust develops through normal wear and tear.

The bar to clear is “No Examples of significant rust”. You may consider that a high bar to clear if you expect there’s a decent chance of permanent discoloration. However most cars do not normally rust, and stainless steel does not normally develop more than surface rust.

bought Ṁ1 NO

I like this question! I saw some talk about this and I have no idea if it's true or not. Seems like a really obvious problem that they surely should have thought of?

@Joshua they're made out of stainless steel if I remember right? Shouldn't happen at all

@VAPOR "stainless steel"! Not "sometimes rusts steel"! It's right there in the name. How could anyone vote yes???

@NivlacM I’ve heard it’s a custom alloy so there’s some uncertainty if the changes may reduce resistance to rusting.

woahhhh stainless steel doesn't rust? that's cool

@Bayesian All steel rusts to some extent, but the addition of chromium and other metals in steel alloys can significantly slow corrosion to the point where it rarely penetrates even a few atoms below the surface.

There are different types of stainless steel based on chemical composition with trade offs between corrosion resistance, strength, and other properties.

I’ve heard suspicions cast that Tesla may have chosen a composition favoring strength over corrosion resistance.

@Joshua They learned nothing from Delorian.

@Bayesian Stainless steal rusts almost immediately you mean. Again the Delorian already showed how stupid the cybertruck is. You have to immediately remove bird shit or it will cause erosion.

@Joshua Looks like Tesla is basically playing it off like cool patina effect. So strange.