Will polio be eradicated before 2027?

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resolved Jun 28

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Will resolve to YES if the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), WHO, or another qualified organization certifies the world as being free from polio before 2027.

From https://polioeradication.org/news-post/the-endgame-what-will-it-take-to-eradicate-polio/:

In 2020, GPEI launched a new roadmap to polio eradication, which set out two ambitious targets: firstly to permanently interrupt all poliovirus transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan, stop transmission of cVDPV and prevent outbreaks in non-endemic countries by 2023. The second target is to certify the world free from polio – meaning no cases have been detected for three years – by 2026.

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This can resolve NO. There have been cases this year, so it cannot be the case that there have been no cases for three years before 2027.

I plan to resolve NO in a week so people have time to raise objections.

@zQ4Z82W can you please resolve?

ez 15 profit after 3 months

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/

it really doesn't seem like 'have a few dozen people spend half an hour guessing at something' (forecasting) is a great technique for actually understanding something complex. it's better than 'have a bunch of people with bad local incentives tell you when it'll happen', but that's a low bar!