Will male pattern baldness be curable via medication before 2035? | Manifold

Will male pattern baldness be curable via medication before 2035?

13

103

Ṁ347

Ṁ270

2035

29%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if both of the following are true:

There is a reliable medication available for reversing advanced baldness to the point that there is no obvious receding hairline or bald spot.

>1% of bald people in at least one G7 country have used the medication (so, for example, a medication that is vanishingly unpopular due to side effects doesn't count). If this statistic is difficult to determine, I'll use my best judgement.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicts NO

What if: there is a reliable medication that cures baldness, but it is vanishingly unpopular (but not illegal) due to side effects?

Good question. I think a cure that's vanishingly unpopular due to side effects isn't really a useful cure, so I'd resolve as NO.

I'll update the description to say that this will resolve YES only if >1% of bald people in at least one G7 country have used the medication. If that statistic is difficult to determine, I'll use my best judgement.

For people who have already traded on this market: let me know if that criterion would have impacted your trading decisions.

Minoxidil doesn't count? How reliable does it need to be?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Tripping minoxidil isn't that impressive when it comes to advanced baldness to be honest.

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