This market resolves YES if there is official confirmation that Iran has launched a direct military strike against Israeli territory before the end of February 2026.
2026 is not a leap year, so the strike must be launched by 11:59 PM (ET) on February 28, 2026.
The attack must originate directly from Iranian territory. Strikes conducted by proxy groups (such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen) strictly resolve NO.
The munitions (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or drones) must be aimed at internationally recognized Israeli territory.
If a projectile is launched from Iran but intercepted by defense systems before hitting the ground, it still counts as a YES.
Confirmation must come from entities such as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the U.S. Department of Defense, or an official claim of responsibility from the Iranian government/IRGC.
If no direct strike is launched before the February deadline, this market resolves NO, regardless of whether a strike happens in March.
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The market criteria were definitively met on February 28, 2026, when Iran launched a direct barrage of drones and ballistic missiles from its own territory targeting internationally recognized Israeli territory, including the Tel Aviv area where fatal impacts and interceptions were recorded.
These retaliatory strikes were officially confirmed by both sides: the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) publicly reported the activation of sirens across central Israel and the tracking of incoming Iranian projectiles, while Iranian officials formally acknowledged launching the widespread counter-strikes against Israel and regional US military bases.
Because the munitions originated directly from Iran, targeted Israel, occurred prior to the 11:59 PM ET deadline on February 28, and received official confirmation from the required entities, all conditions for a YES resolution are satisfied.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/28/us-israel-strikes-iran-tehran-response-visual-guide
"Witnesses in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv have reported blasts over the city as the IRGC says the first wave of missile and drone attacks have been launched against Israel in response to the attacksearlier on Saturday."
