Iran strikes Israel by March 7, 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if, by March 7, 2026 (11:59 PM EST), munitions (missiles, drones, etc.) launched directly from Iranian soil strike or are intercepted over internationally recognized Israeli territory.

Requires official confirmation from at least two of the following: Israel Defense Forces (IDF), U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), or the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Attacks launched from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, or Yemen strictly resolve NO, even if funded or directed by Iran.

Must target Israeli territory. Retaliatory strikes on U.S. regional bases or maritime shipping do not count.

Munitions successfully intercepted by defense systems within/over Israeli airspace count as YES.

If no attack reaches Israeli airspace by the deadline, it resolves NO

Resolution may be delayed up to 48 hours in the event of severe communications blackouts or ambiguous reporting.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Mar 1, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.