Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to the option that best represents my assessment of the final outcome of the Trump administration's tariff policies but headlines from major news corps that align with the language used in the options will be strongly weighed in my resolution. The resolution will be based on your subjective evaluation of the overall impact and developments related to these tariffs. The market will not resolve to other, that is for the unlikely case that someone convinces me to add another possibility that is meaningfully different to the current options.
Note the resolution date: Jan 1st 2026
I expect there to be no shortage of back and forth, but whatever is the case at that point, even if ie. trade deals seem imminent, I will resolve accordingly
Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a clarification regarding the interpretation of Option 1 in a specific scenario:
If a 10% tariff becomes largely universal (i.e., applying across countries), this situation will be considered to fall under Option 1.
This interpretation will hold even if new trade deals are which involve higher tariffs than previous ones, provided the 10% tariff is a more or less universal component.
In such a scenario, the outcome will be treated as if the Trump administration negotiated on all matters except for this universal 10% tariff, though depending on how extensive the other aspects f the trade deals are, this may resolve 50/50
1,000Given today's trade deal left the 10% on the UK largely in tact I think some clarification is warranted:
This is technically a new trade deal with higher than previous tariffs, but if it becomes clear that the 10% is more or less universal regardless of country, I'll consider that option 1 still and treat it as though the Trump negotiated on all things other than the universal tariff