@Karsh Changed. I think it was the default Manifold close time.

@ShakedKoplewitz Mine is for mid 2026 and is at 14% to last until then (vs 27% for 2025 by this one). This implies conditional odds of about 50% of collapsing after 2025 if it makes it that far, which sounds about right.

@ShakedKoplewitz it's about to collapse, it will just become a dictatorship and the question will be meaningless.

@MarkIngraham wanna bet more than 5 mana on that?

@MarkIngraham Not municipal. “Israel” means the national government. The next one is scheduled for 2027, but could be called at any time.

@xyz it won't have any elections as American government is collapsing leading to collapse of its proxies

@MarkIngraham you think the American government will collapse so badly within the next year that even other countries won't be able to run elections? Those are some impressively short timelines

(Also, do you have a market on this?)

@ShakedKoplewitz

@ShakedKoplewitz all of my markets are on this

@MarkIngraham I don't see anything for "us government collapses by 2025", so here you go

https://manifold.markets/ShakedKoplewitz/us-government-collapses-by-2025?r=U2hha2VkS29wbGV3aXR6

@ShakedKoplewitz I voted against it. 2026