Will Israel have an election before 2025?
19
closes 2024
49%
chance

Sort by:
Karsh avatar
Karshis predicting YES at 69%

Why does the market close at 2026? Surely it should be 2025?

xyz avatar
Yoav

@Karsh Changed. I think it was the default Manifold close time.

Shai avatar
Shai
ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz

@ShakedKoplewitz Mine is for mid 2026 and is at 14% to last until then (vs 27% for 2025 by this one). This implies conditional odds of about 50% of collapsing after 2025 if it makes it that far, which sounds about right.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahamis predicting NO at 73%

@ShakedKoplewitz it's about to collapse, it will just become a dictatorship and the question will be meaningless.

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz

@MarkIngraham wanna bet more than 5 mana on that?

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahambought Ṁ5 of YES

You mean municipal elections? The national is 2027.

xyz avatar
Yoav

@MarkIngraham Not municipal. “Israel” means the national government. The next one is scheduled for 2027, but could be called at any time.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahamis predicting NO at 58%

@xyz it won't have any elections as American government is collapsing leading to collapse of its proxies

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz

@MarkIngraham you think the American government will collapse so badly within the next year that even other countries won't be able to run elections? Those are some impressively short timelines

(Also, do you have a market on this?)

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahamis predicting NO at 73%
MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahamis predicting NO at 73%

@ShakedKoplewitz all of my markets are on this

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz

@MarkIngraham I don't see anything for "us government collapses by 2025", so here you go

https://manifold.markets/ShakedKoplewitz/us-government-collapses-by-2025?r=U2hha2VkS29wbGV3aXR6

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahamis predicting NO at 73%

@ShakedKoplewitz I voted against it. 2026

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