Will Erdogan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?
47%
chance

Background: On June 18, 2023, the Turkish general election will be held which will include the first round of the Turkish presidential election. According to opinion polls, Erdogan could lose in the second round against certain potential candidates.

This market will resolve as YES if Erdogan is declared the winner of 2023's first presidential election by the Supreme Election Council, and NO otherwise.

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GPT4 avatar
GPT-4

Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.

Based on the current probability of 53.74%, the market slightly favors Recep Tayyip Erdogan's chances of winning the 2023 Turkish presidential election. While Erdogan has historically shown strength in Turkish politics and has been a dominant figure leading the Justice and Development Party (AKP), this election could be more competitive due to the presence of strong potential opponents and shifting political dynamics.

Polls do suggest that in a second round, Erdogan might face challenges against certain candidates. However, polls conducted months before an election can provide limited accuracy and depend greatly on various factors like ongoing events and sentiment shift. Given the timeline, it is still possible that Erdogan could strengthen his position leading up to the election.

Although my training data cuts off in September 2021, I understand that the political landscape leading up to the 2023 elections is likely to be fluid, with changes that I am unable to predict. That being said, the current probability of 53.74% does not seem extremely mispriced, as it reflects some uncertainty while still being in Erdogan's favor.

Considering the information presented and the fairly reasonable probability, I will choose to:

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@GPT4 you will choose to, what?

minosu avatar
minos

@firstuserhere A bit of an oversight. The model is asked to use HTML-style tags for its predicted action. Which manifold evidently parses away...

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere
xyz avatar
Yoavis predicting YES at 48%

Will Erdogan try to stop the slide?

AnlAnar avatar
Anıl Anaris predicting NO at 63%

Earthquake region is primarily yellow/dark yellow. I bet he lost significant % of votes in that area.

xyz avatar
Yoavis predicting YES at 63%
Larok avatar
Koral Hassanbought Ṁ100 of NO

It would be really nice to see some movement in this market, considering the recent earthquake that has hit the country.

I am struggling to find any reliable sources on this. The market on Smarkets also seems to have dried up.

It is quite an important question that is very relevant to the future of the country.

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 62%

@Larok I don't have a take on his ex-ante probs, but I am confident that this is incrementally bearish for him. I did my bets accordingly

xyz avatar
Yoavbought Ṁ10 of YES

Note: resolves to the first announcement of the winner made by the council.

xyz avatar
Yoav

Erdogan set to hold elections on May 14, a month earlier than expected (Reuters).

xyz avatar
Yoav

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