Will Erdogan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?
resolved May 28

Background: On June 18, 2023, the Turkish general election will be held which will include the first round of the Turkish presidential election. According to opinion polls, Erdogan could lose in the second round against certain potential candidates.

Update: The first round has been moved forward to Sunday, May 14.

This market will resolve as YES if Erdogan is declared the winner of 2023's first presidential election by the Supreme Election Council, and NO otherwise.

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Looks good 👍 👍 👍

predicted YES

@xyz other markets are already resolving as YES /BTE/will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-be-reelec


predicted NO

The election outcome will be determined to a likely significant extent by Sinan Oğan's direction to his voter base.

There are a couple of reasons he may choose to publicly support Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu:
- Both Kemal and Sinan are currently members of parties that are ideologically Kemalist.
- Sinan has said he will support the candidate that is more "anti-Syrian", while Erdoğan seems actually relatively more "pro-Syrian" than is Kılıçdaroğlu.
-- https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230504-turkey-s-syrians-root-for-erdogan-in-may-vote
-- https://npasyria.com/en/97735/

However, Sinan is also "anti-Kurdish", which could mean a higher chance of supporting Erdoğan instead:
- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-runoff-potential-kingmaker-draws-red-line-kurdish-consessions-2023-05-15/
- https://www.arabnews.com/node/2299416/middle-east

It is very sad that this second round be framed so divisively, by such a far right figure, and by such xenophobic stances in general.

Note: I have not researched into RTE/KK swing voters yet, so there is still further uncertainty even beyond what is suggested by the above information.

predicted NO

@cloudprism boy, Erdogan won with 49.5%. It would need that more than 80% of the people that voted to another candidate to vote to Kilicdaroglu

predicted NO

@MP like bernie endorsing biden

predicted YES
predicted NO

How could he lose? He needs 15% of the far-right candidate's vote (or even just 25% of them to abstain) (double check I need to do the math)

predicted NO

@AaronKreider why do you predict no then? Lol

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@BraulioValdivielsoMartine That's old info. I'm on YES.

Lower level question of whether Erdogan gets a plurality of the votes this round

bought Ṁ250 of NO

Erdogan's lead is steadily reducing, currently at 50.7% according to Wikipedia. Runoff is likely.

predicted YES

@cloudprism Manifold agrees:

predicted YES

I saw a tweet that polls where Kilicdaroglu is leading are getting appealed, so that might cause delay in reporting that favors him and close the gap. I don’t think it will be enough to erase Erdogan’s lead but it seems likely to dip him under 50%.

Do we have markets on concessions and democratic transfer of power?

bought Ṁ100 of NO
sold Ṁ97 of YES

42% done.

Erdogan is still ahead.

predicted NO


bought Ṁ50 of YES


predicted NO

What a great day this market is trading at 37%. Let's crush these autocratic assholes