[Ṁ1000 Subsidy] Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections?
[Ṁ1000 Subsidy] Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections?
86
2.6kṀ150k
resolved May 28
Resolved
YES

The President of Turkey is directly elected through the two-round system, under which a candidate must obtain a simple majority (more than 50%) of the popular vote in order to be elected. If no candidate secures an overall majority outright, then a runoff is held between the two most voted-for candidates from the first round, the winner of which is then declared elected.

YES if there is a second round of voting. NO if there is not.

Apr 5, 10:45am: Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections? → [Ṁ1000 Subsidy] Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections?

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2y

Election results will not have Erdogan at >50% (~99.5% sure)
But, I'm saying there's more than 1% chance of shenanigans resulting in the second round not happening. It's a pretty contentious election, and Turkey isn't that stable democratically. This market is about the voting actually occurring.

2y

@Fedor agreed

predictedNO 2y

@Fedor Also agreed

predictedNO 2y

goddam it, never trust "joementum"

2y

Currently 95.83% of ballots have been counted.
ERDOĞAN has 49.57% of the votes
KILIÇDAROĞLU has 44.82% of the votes
And the rest have 5.71%

The proportion of the remaining votes for ERDOĞAN would have to be at least 62.18% for him to cross the 50% finish line. I think this market will resolve YES.

@MayMeta upd: 96.15% ballots counted, Erdogan has to win 63.99% of the remaining.
This will be, statistically speaking, extremely improbable.

upd2: 96.49% -- 65.94%
upd3: 96.89% -- 69.00%
upd4: 97.77% -- 78.50%

predictedYES 2y

It could happen. Especially if nobody gets > 50%.

2y

People interested in Türkiye’s election may also be interested in the results of Thailand’s election:

2y
2y

Since this market is getting attention, I’ll just explicitly clarify that as noted in the description, the second round needs to happen, not just be announced. This won’t resolve until the voting occurs.

predictedYES 2y

@DanMan314 I traded here assuming it meant that the first round would be determined inconclusive due to no candidate receiving over 50% of the vote, not that there wouldn't be some sort of unforeseen break in the system leading to the absence of a second round. I don't think that will happen, so I will keep my position, but "compound predictions" can be sort of confusing. I do appreciate that you clarified early.

2y

this Kılıçdaroğlu guy has some major Joementum!

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