Resolution Criteria

Market Resolves YES if:

• The Supreme Court issues an order or final decision that allows President Trump's removal of Lisa Cook from her position as Federal Reserve Board Governor to proceed, or

• The Court stays/vacates the preliminary injunctions preventing her removal, or

• The Court issues a ruling in which a majority of Justices determine that the President had valid "for cause" grounds to remove Cook under the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. § 242), OR

• The Court holds that the President's removal decision is unreviewable by courts and therefore valid

Market Resolves NO if:

• The Supreme Court affirms the lower court preliminary injunction blocking Trump's removal of Cook, or

• The Court issues a ruling in which a majority of Justices determine that Trump lacked valid "for cause" grounds under the Federal Reserve Act, or

• The Court upholds Cook's due process or statutory rights preventing removal on the current allegations

Market Resolves AMBIGUOUS/N/A if:

• The case is dismissed on procedural grounds before a substantive ruling on removal authority, or

• The parties settle before the Court issues a ruling, or

• Cook voluntarily resigns before the Court decision, or

• The Court issues an evenly split decision (unlikely given 9 justices, but possible if a justice recuses)

Key Case Facts for Traders

Background: President Trump attempted to remove Lisa Cook, Federal Reserve Board Governor (appointed by Biden, 2022), in August 2025, citing pre-confirmation mortgage fraud allegations. Cook filed suit. A federal district judge granted a preliminary injunction blocking the removal. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the injunction 2-1. Trump appealed to the Supreme Court.

Legal Questions Before SCOTUS:

1. Whether the President's determination of "for cause" is unreviewable or subject to judicial scrutiny

2. Whether unproven, pre-office mortgage allegations constitute "cause" under the Federal Reserve Act

3. Whether Cook had due process rights to notice and hearing before removal

4. Whether the Fed's structural independence constrains presidential removal power

Timeline: Oral arguments scheduled January 21, 2026 (tomorrow from market close date of June 29, 2026). Decision expected by end of 2026.

Institutional Context: The Supreme Court has a 6-3 conservative majority. The Trump administration has previously prevailed on emergency applications (immigration, tariffs, federal layoffs). However, the Court has signaled concern for Fed independence in related cases. Legal observers assess this as a close case with genuine uncertainty.