Resolution Criteria

The case concerns the legality of President Donald Trump's attempt to fire Lisa Cook from her post on the Fed's Board of Governors. The market resolves according to how many justices rule for and against the holding of the court. This market does not address whether one party prevails.

Resolution will be determined by the Supreme Court's final decision in Trump v. Cook (Docket No. 25A312), available at supremecourt.gov.

Background

This is the first time in the Fed's 112-year history that a president has tried to fire a sitting governor. Under the Federal Reserve Act, the president may remove a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, but only "for cause." Congress designed this removal protection to ensure the independence of board members from direct presidential control. Trump's attempt centers on allegations of mortgage fraud, which Cook denies. A lower court issued a preliminary injunction preventing the firing, stating that Cook has made a strong showing that her removal violated the Federal Reserve Act's "for cause" provision.

Considerations

During oral arguments, both conservative and liberal justices sharply questioned the government's position, with Trump's own appointees among the skeptics. Justice Brett Kavanaugh said the president's position would "weaken if not shatter the independence of the Federal Reserve." The case remains on the Court's emergency docket, meaning the justices don't have to definitively resolve the broader constitutional questions presented.

Resolution Criteria

The market resolves according to how many justices rule for and against the holding of the court. This market does not address whether one party prevails. Resolution will be determined by the Supreme Court's final decision in Trump v. Cook (Docket No. 25A312), available at supremecourt.gov.

Background

This is the first time in the Federal Reserve's 112-year history that a president has attempted to fire a sitting Board of Governors member. Under the Federal Reserve Act, the president may remove a board member only "for cause"—a protection Congress designed to insulate the Fed from direct presidential control. Trump's removal attempt centers on allegations of mortgage fraud, which Cook denies. A lower court issued a preliminary injunction blocking the firing, finding Cook made a strong showing that removal would violate the "for cause" requirement.

Considerations

During oral arguments, both conservative and liberal justices questioned the government's position, with Trump's appointees among the skeptics. Justice Brett Kavanaugh stated the president's position would "weaken if not shatter the independence of the Federal Reserve." The case remains on the Court's emergency docket, meaning justices may issue a narrow ruling without definitively resolving broader constitutional questions about presidential removal power.