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Will GPT-4 (or similar) inference cost less than $0.02/1k completion tokens on 1 Jan 2024?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Currently it's $0.06/1k tokens, but OpenAI has a history of aggressively slashing API prices.

If OpenAI releases a different model in the GPT-4 family, it counts as long as it is qualitatively similar, by my subjective judgement. For example, gpt-3.5-turbo would count as similar to text-davinci-003. Criteria I'll use:

  • Is the context window at least 8K?

  • Is consensus that the model is a good replacement for current gpt-4 for most use cases?

If it is not possible to do inference on any GPT-4 family model through the OpenAI API on Jan 1, this resolves NO (because the price is effectively infinite).

I won't trade in this market.

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@DanMan314 this model would likely count (I'd want to verify quality), but it seems unlikely that the price for completion/output tokens will drop strictly below $0.02/1k by end of year

@wylderai whoops, that was just me misreading. Thanks for calling that out before betting against!

Do non-OpenAI models count?

@AnT good question, no