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MANIFOLD
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US election? Conditional on the S&P 500's closing price
8
Ṁ445Ṁ254
resolved Apr 23
Resolved
N/A
5500 < price
Resolved
N/A
5000 < price ≤ 5500
Resolved
N/A
4500 < price ≤ 5000
Resolved
N/A
4000 < price ≤ 4500
Resolved
N/A
price ≤ 4000

All but one of the multibinary options will resolve N/A. I will pick the option to resolve based on the closing price of the S&P 500 shown by Google Finance on November 4, 2024 (or the day before the election if it is moved). It will resolve YES if a democrat wins the presidency, and NO otherwise.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Stocks
S&P 500 Changes
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Since this market relies on being able to N/A options, which will no longer be possible with Manifold's new rules, I am N/A'ing now as a precaution.

I'm a huge brainlet, can someone explain this one to me, what does the s&p 500 have to do with the election, help

@BigMoneySwag good economic vibes help incumbents. Stock markets are a key component of economic vibes

This one's a useful reference

Cool market concept!

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