Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
743
4.4K
4.2K
Dec 1
52%
chance

Resolves according to the opinion of mainstream liberal news sources like NYT, WaPo, Atlantic, etc. in case of a disputed result.

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predicts NO

One of these markets is wrong.

predicts NO

@ItsMe not anymore cos I spent $16 correcting them. Sorry

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Joshua Of course, there's a miniscule chance that Biden is not the nominee. Of course, the difference is probably due to noise and not because of the markets actually weighing the probability Biden is not the nominee.

https://manifold.markets/dashboard/good-judgment-superforecasters?r=VHVtYmxlcw

This market is currently 5% lower than this "superforecaster" prediction

Future is unpredictable ..but all odds for now favour Democrats for 2024 US presidential election...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/national/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/these-new-poll-numbers-show-why-biden-and-trump-are-stuck-in-a-2024-dead-heat

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/poll-overwhelming-majorities-express-concerns-biden-trump-ahead-2024-r-rcna111347

In June, Biden held a 4-point lead over Trump, 49% to 45%.

According to the new poll, Biden is ahead of Trump among Black voters (76% to 14%), voters between the ages of 18 and 34 (57% to 34%), whites with college degrees (56% to 34%), Latinos (51% to 39%) and women (51% to 41%).

https://theconversation.com/why-biden-is-the-democrats-best-hope-of-winning-the-2024-election-199653

"Even without a clear majority in both the House and Senate, a second Biden term could benefit the US. The partisan divide has hamstrung US politics in recent years and instances of bipartisan collaboration have been few and far between".

bought Ṁ5 of NO

(deleted comment, was stupid)

predicts NO

@TheBayesian How could it be otherwise? Biden is a Democrat, so if Biden wins then a Democrat wins.

predicts NO

@NcyRocks I am an idiot, but yes I meant the opposite

bought Ṁ10 of NO

other betting markets are showing a 52% chance of winning.

@MichaeldelaMaza Hmmmmmm. They also have a 15% chance of Biden resigning, which seems way too high.

predicts NO

@JakeTeale They do? Where?

@MichaeldelaMaza If you click the link you sent, there is an option at the top that says ‘Biden out’. Click that and it takes you to the resignation market.

@MichaeldelaMaza Still 52% now. I wonder why the discrepancy, and which is more accurate.

hahaha : :

Compare with

bought Ṁ1 of NO
predicts NO

@NcyRocks Not quite the same question, but pretty close.

@NcyRocks We need a binary market for greater accuracy.

predicts NO

@SG True.

Somehow we seemed to be missing this market.