Dec 1, 2024
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
55%
chance

Resolves according to the opinion of mainstream liberal news sources like NYT, WaPo, Atlantic, etc. in case of a disputed result.

Sort by:
SG avatar
S G

Compare with

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngbought Ṁ1 of NO
NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngis predicting NO at 50%

@NcyRocks Not quite the same question, but pretty close.

SG avatar
S G

@NcyRocks We need a binary market for greater accuracy.

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngis predicting NO at 50%

@SG True.

SG avatar
S G

Somehow we seemed to be missing this market.