Resolves according to the opinion of mainstream liberal news sources like NYT, WaPo, Atlantic, etc. in case of a disputed result.
1,000
3.00@TiredCliche perhaps I'm wrong but I thought the loan system was creating inflation and that ending the loan system would stop or at least reduce the inflation.
@MP "To make this possible while ensuring that all mana liabilities can be met, we’re changing the purchase rate to 1 USD : 1,000 mana on May 15th".
https://open.substack.com/pub/manifoldmarkets/p/exploring-cash-prizes-for-good-predictions
My money is worth more today than it will be tomorrow
@MP if that's your view. I have to donate 10% of my income every year to charities for religious reasons.
@TiredCliche Oh. I forgot that the Mana/$ was going up and $donation/Mana was going down. Good point. I did buy Mana, but I've already donated that amount so I'm not worried about it. I guess I should have donated everything with the old rate, waited for the rate to change, and then bought replacement Mana. It's too late now, right?
@TiredCliche You may still have time to get a charity donation loan, which is both easier and a better use of mana than selling your positions
@Joshua Of course, there's a miniscule chance that Biden is not the nominee. Of course, the difference is probably due to noise and not because of the markets actually weighing the probability Biden is not the nominee.
https://manifold.markets/dashboard/good-judgment-superforecasters?r=VHVtYmxlcw
This market is currently 5% lower than this "superforecaster" prediction
Future is unpredictable ..but all odds for now favour Democrats for 2024 US presidential election...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/national/
In June, Biden held a 4-point lead over Trump, 49% to 45%.
According to the new poll, Biden is ahead of Trump among Black voters (76% to 14%), voters between the ages of 18 and 34 (57% to 34%), whites with college degrees (56% to 34%), Latinos (51% to 39%) and women (51% to 41%).
https://theconversation.com/why-biden-is-the-democrats-best-hope-of-winning-the-2024-election-199653
"Even without a clear majority in both the House and Senate, a second Biden term could benefit the US. The partisan divide has hamstrung US politics in recent years and instances of bipartisan collaboration have been few and far between".
(deleted comment, was stupid)
@TheBayesian How could it be otherwise? Biden is a Democrat, so if Biden wins then a Democrat wins.
@MichaeldelaMaza If you click the link you sent, there is an option at the top that says ‘Biden out’. Click that and it takes you to the resignation market.
@JakeTeale Got it, 15% does seem high. Good bet?
https://electionbettingodds.com/BidenResigns.html