Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?

Dec 1, 2024

55%

chance

ALL

Resolves according to the opinion of mainstream liberal news sources like NYT, WaPo, Atlantic, etc. in case of a disputed result.

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N.C. Youngbought Ṁ1 of NO

N.C. Youngis predicting NO at 50%

@NcyRocks Not quite the same question, but pretty close.

@NcyRocks We need a binary market for greater accuracy.

N.C. Youngis predicting NO at 50%

@SG True.

Somehow we seemed to be missing this market.