MANIFOLD

If the Republican nominee wins the presidency, how much will the S&P 500 move?

Ṁ1.6kṀ397

resolved Nov 7

100%4%

3% to 4%

Gain more than 5%

4% to 5%

2% to 3%

12%

1% to 2%

21%

0% to 1%

21%

-1% to 0%

10%

-2% to -1%

-3% to -2%

-4% to -3%

-4% to -5%

Drop more than 5%

I will compare the opening price on the 4th of November to the closing price at the next market close after the election is called.

If the number is an exact percentage I will split evenly between the two nearest buckets.

Will resolve NA if the Republican nominee is not elected.

Notes:

I may adjust the criteria in response to suggestions.

I'll update the question title when the nominee is known.

I will not trade in the market.

Market context

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I may have to NA this as well if grandfathering of NAs isn't confirmed in the pivot.

It feels like there are too many bins here, it makes it difficult to predict (in additional to being conditioned on an event that is predicted with <50%)

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