Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher? | Manifold

Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?

5

100Ṁ36

2040

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

31%

Quantum computer that can break RSA-2048

30%

Autonomous AI math researcher

39%

Neither arrives by January 1, 2040

This market resolves to the event which happens first:

Event 1: A quantum computer is capable of factoring RSA-2048 (the number has to be publicly factored, and the demonstration has to be verified).

Event 2: An AI model is capable of autonomously generating annals-quality math papers for under 100K$, as specified in this market:
https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann

If neither of the events happen by January 1, 2040, the market resolves to the third option.

Quantum Computing

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Will the first AI Superintelligence be installed on a classical computer, a quantum computer, or some other alternative?

Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2075?

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?

Related questions

Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Will the first AI Superintelligence be installed on a classical computer, a quantum computer, or some other alternative?

Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2075?

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy