What will be "March 2020" for AGI?
Basic
4
Ṁ1422026
25%
An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3
20%
Mass AI-driven job displacement event
18%
AI system demonstrates general robotic control
15%
AI causes significant stock market event
15%
Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation
11%
Major AI safety incident or accident
11%
AI system makes scientific breakthrough
11%
AI system solves major unsolved math problem
11%
An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer
"I think we're at what late February 2020 was for COVID, but for AI. If you're paying attention, you kind of have an idea of the general direction in which the world is headed. You know that as was the case with COVID, within a very short amount of time, every single world leader, every single CEO, every single institution, members of the general public are going to realize pretty soon that the main thing we as a world are dealing with is COVID, or in this case, AI."
Market resolves to the first event that causes AI to become widely viewed as humanity's central challenge, similar to how COVID-19's pandemic declaration in March 2020 sparked global mobilization.
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