What will be "March 2020" for AGI?
11
1.8kṀ1359
2030
49%
Mass AI-driven job displacement event
45%
A government declaration/statement (any country)
41%
Reports about software
41%
Reports about financial activity
41%
Report about sociological observations
41%
Report about economic observations
41%
AI-related academic achievement
40%
Attack on civilian target
40%
Attack on military target
40%
AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat
39%
A statement from an individual (human)
38%
AI-related political movement (pro or anti)
38%
AI-related fake news
38%
A viral meme
36%
A private company declaration/statement (any company)
35%
An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target
35%
Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)
35%
Military activity / posture change
34%
AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event
34%
An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

From Dwarkesh Patel:

"I think we're at what late February 2020 was for COVID, but for AI. If you're paying attention, you kind of have an idea of the general direction in which the world is headed. You know that as was the case with COVID, within a very short amount of time, every single world leader, every single CEO, every single institution, members of the general public are going to realize pretty soon that the main thing we as a world are dealing with is COVID, or in this case, AI."

Market resolves to the first event that causes AI to become widely viewed as humanity's central challenge, similar to how COVID-19's pandemic declaration in March 2020 sparked global mobilization.

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