I’m pretty sure even when (if) it goes into effect, that if a state is being controlled by the party that won the statewide vote and lost the national popular vote - they’ll find a way to send the electors of the candidate who won the state

I kinda wish there are 270 votes in Compact states but the total is more than 540 so the thing is not in force. Like, Puerto Rico and DC join or something. This question would be ambiguous in that case. Or the last state that gives the compact a majority does so between July 21 and election day in 2032, so the compact is only in force for 2036.

https://www.newsweek.com/end-electoral-college-finally-sight-opinion-1891907

Note that this not directly comparable to the 2024 and 2028 markets. Those markets will resolve PROB if there is partial progress.

Tbh, my bet is more a hedge against my happiness than a true prediction