Will Ingenuity have more than 90 minutes of flight time by its first anniversary on Mars?
59%
chance
Ingenuity is a small robotic helicopter operating on Mars as part of NASA's Mars 2020 mission along with the Perseverance rover, which landed on February 18, 2021. Two months later, on April 19, Ingenuity successfully completed the first powered controlled extraterrestrial flight by an aircraft—taking off vertically, hovering, and landing, for a flight duration of 39.1 seconds. As of April 23, 2022, it has made 27 successful flights with a total flight time of 51.7 minutes (per https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/#Flight-Log).
Perseverance and Ingenuity will celebrate their first (martian) year on January 6, 2023. If Ingenuity has logged more than 90 minutes of flight time by then, this market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO. If Ingenuity encounters a critical failure and NASA announces it will not attempt further flights, I will resolve this market NO early.
Manifold Markets bought M$20 of YES15 days ago
I'm bullish for our little guy. Wonder if my little paper wings will allow me to fly soon?