Will humans successfully land on Mars within the next 30 years?

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What does qualify as "land"? If the rocket crashes and everyone dies, will this resolve to "YES"?

predicts NO

@Enlil personally I looked for bright-line situations which makes resolution possible. For example, living long enough to be stable and unmoving on the surface and transmit an audio or text or video message.

Criteria involving exact time of death during a kinetic impact combined with craft breakup is too often not knowable.

@Enlil We’re looking for a successful landing.

predicts YES

I do think that in the next 30 years, human will land on Mars. In July of 2020, the rover Perseverance was sent to Mars and is still actively on the landing site named Octavia E. This rover was designed to determine if life forms ever existed on Mars, but most importantly it will address the challenges that arise from human expedition to Mars. The main issue is the ability to find water on Mars. However, we already have the technology (robots) and knowledge to accomplish this task before humans are sent. According to Professor Saydam, from the School of Mineral Energy Resources Engineering, “at the moment, everything is just a cost and there is no revenue for companies". Yet, a joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing known as United Launch Alliance, has made a public declaration stating their willingness to compensate at a rate of $500 per kilogram for water-derived fuel supplied on the moon. This compensation escalates to $3000 per kilogram if the fuel is accessible within a low-earth orbit. Meaning that a market is being created. With this said, individuals like Elon Musk, who have set a timeframe for sending human to Mars are more motivated as well as having technological advancements that can reduce the costs.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

@MorganSmithb41f Should this be closed already? It seems like it would be more appropriate to have the market open until resolution.

@EvanDaniel Definitely opening it back up. I think it hit a default close out date. Thanks for the catch!

@MorganSmithb41f You're welcome! Yeah, the default times are short if you don't change them. It's a fairly common problem, the UI could definitely use some work there.

Various space agencies and private enterprises have undertaken ambitious initiatives to send humans to Mars. NASA, through the Artemis program, aims to bring humans back to the Moon, using this mission as a foundation for subsequent crewed ventures to Mars. Additionally, private entities such as SpaceX have articulated their aspirations to transport humans to the Red Planet.

The prospect of humans landing on Mars in the next three decades hinges on several factors, encompassing technological progress, financial support, global cooperation, and the successful resolution of the multifaceted challenges linked to extended space travel and the establishment of a human habitat on another celestial body.

Vice President Mike Pence issued a directive to NASA, instructing the agency to achieve a human return to the moon by 2024. The report he submitted provides details on the potential costs of a lunar return and outlines its integration into broader, long-term strategies for sending humans to Mars. NASA enlisted the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI) to compile the report, as mandated by Congress in the 2017 NASA authorization act. The legislation specifically requested a comprehensive evaluation, encompassing both technical and financial aspects, of “a Mars human space flight mission to be launched in 2033.”

The idea of a man on Mars is not too far fetched.

predicts YES

I believe that the prospects for human missions to Mars within the next 30 years are promising. While there are certainly challenges, including funding and geopolitical issues, the fact that multiple nations and organizations are actively working on Mars exploration is a positive sign. Collaboration and advancements in technology can play a major role in making this ambitious goal a reality. With continuous efforts and international cooperation, it's reasonable to be optimistic about the possibility of humans landing on Mars within the next three decades.

It's likely that humans will land on Mars within the next three decades. NASA is working hard to build the Orion spacecraft and the Space Launch System (SLS), both of which are capable of carrying humans to Mars. Concurrently, SpaceX is developing the Starship spaceship, a reusable ship meant to transport people and goods to Mars.

The goal of several nations and private companies is to create the necessary technologies for a Mars mission involving humans. This covers radiation protection, food production processes, and life support systems.

The chances of a human landing on Mars over the next 30 years are increasing, despite a number of obstacles still standing in the way.