By the start of 2026, will the Clay Mathematics Institute award its monetary prize for the solution of another Millennium Prize Problem?

Math•Millennium Prize Problems

215

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Ṁ470

2025

chance

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The only problem solved by the time the marked is created (4 Dec 2022) is the Poincaré conjecture. The remaining ones are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture, Hodge conjecture, Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness, P versus NP problem, Riemann hypothesis, and Yang–Mills existence and mass gap.

If the Clay Methematics Institute offers an award for the solution of a Millennium Prize Problem to someone and they decline the award (as Grigory Perelman did with his prize for proving the Poincaré conjecture), I will resolve YES.

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bought Ṁ500 of NO

Time is basically already up for this.

Before CMI will consider a proposed solution, all three of the following conditions must be satisfied: (i) the proposed solution must be published in a Qualifying Outlet (see §6), and (ii) at least two years must have passed since publication, and (iii) the proposed solution must have received general acceptance in the global mathematics community

https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/rules/

Rules for the Millennium Prize Problems - Clay Mathematics Institute

The revised rules for the Millennium Prize Problems were adopted by the Board of Directors of the Clay Mathematics Institute on 26 September, 2018. Please read this document carefully before contacting CMI about a proposed solution. In particular, please note that: CMI does not accept direct submission of proposed solutions. The document is a complete statement of […]

predicts NO

Why does this close at 2025?

@Karsh the deadline is 31 Dec 2025 because the question is about "will it happen by the start of 2026". is something amiss?

Title is misspelled, "Millenium" should be "Millennium".

@IsaacKing thanks man

https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/which-millennium-prize-problem-will

Thought it would embed automatically. Here:

@degtorad What an interesting market, and what a way to effectively convey specialized knowledge!

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