Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?
Basic
9
Ṁ1812030
58%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By default I will use the numbers provided by the GPEI. Note that this is not equivalent to polio eradication by 2030 - we can have a year without cases either by skipping years or through poor observation, for instance. It is also specifically wild polio - I am not counting vaccine derived polio cases.
At market creation the number for 2023 is 10.
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