Will any transfer learning model, trained for any amount of time on one Atari environment, outperform the median human learning curve on most other Atari environments when transferred by 2026?
Basic
7
Ṁ2482026
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
- Median human learning curve will be based on whatever the best available data for the human learning curve at the time is. If there is no good data available the question resolves N/A
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@StephenMalina Essentially nonexistent. There are scattered attempts at transferring between a few games. AFAIK no one has made any notable progress and no one has tried transferring across all games.
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
61% chance
Will an AI achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
28% chance
Will any model get above human level (92%) on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
52% chance
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?
22% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
62% chance
By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?
81% chance
Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?
58% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
75% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
56% chance
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
57% chance