When will any model achieve >=human performance on QuALITY?
Basic
6
Ṁ4592032
2%
0.9%
Before 2023
0.4%
2023-2024
50%
2024-2025
34%
2025-2026
4%
2026-2027
0.7%
2027-2032
8%
2032-never
QuALITY: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.08608.pdf. At time of writing, human performance is 93.5% and this will be used to resolve the question.
Apr 8, 4:25pm: I've written my own answers and will pick whichever one applies. x-y means after x and before y.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?
Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
69% chance
Will a Chinese AI developer announce a model rivaling o3 performance by February 2025?
20% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
56% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
33% chance
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?
22% chance
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?
25% chance
Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028
45% chance
By 2025 end, a model exhibits action recognition (video) equivalent to human level accuracy on Something Something V2?
60% chance
When will self-improving AI outperform human-developed AI?
2032