
Short-Term AI #2: By the end of June 2023, will SOTA on MMLU overall be >=85%?
13
270Ṁ9155resolved Mar 14
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Current SOTA is ~75%: https://paperswithcode.com/sota/multi-task-language-understanding-on-mmlu
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ53 | |
2 | Ṁ37 | |
3 | Ṁ36 | |
4 | Ṁ20 | |
5 | Ṁ19 |
People are also trading
MMLU 99% #3: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2026?
6% chance
MMLU 99% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2027?
8% chance
MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?
44% chance
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #3: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2026?
86% chance
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2026?
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #4: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2027?
86% chance
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #5: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2028?
87% chance
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?
71% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
MMLU 99% #3: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2026?
6% chance
MMLU 99% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2027?
8% chance
MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?
44% chance
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #3: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2026?
86% chance
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2026?
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #4: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2027?
86% chance
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #5: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2028?
87% chance
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?
71% chance