Within one year, will there be an AI that can solve any math problem I can (_including_ research math problems) for less money than it would cost to hire me or someone with a similar background as a consultant on the problem (let's say $250/hour).
In theory I should test this by handing it my grad school work and seeing how it does but that may be prohibitively expensive, so instead resolution will be based on my inscrutable whims / general vibes, so consider yourselves warned.
(For my level of math: this is my real name and you can look up my resume, but tl;dr I dropped out of a PhD in ML where about half of my time was spent on PAC learning bounds for causal discovery algorithms. I made it semi-far into the proofs but didn't publish, which is part of why the comparison will be vibes based. I also did okay on the Putnam but it's pretty likely that AI is already better than me at competition math so I don't think that's very relevant.)
Update 2024-21-12 (PST): The market will be resolved based on my assessment at market close time (one year from market creation). I will resolve Yes if I think AI is better than me at that time, and No otherwise. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00will there be an AI that can solve any math problem I can
I'm assuming "any" here means "all" rather than "at least one", otherwise a pocket calculator wins lol
If so, this may be near impossible with machine learning, because it can only learn to do stuff based on there being a bunch of it in its training data right, which may be impossible unless your level of research math becomes a common publicly posted passtime
@JussiVilleHeiskanen What does "that" refer to? I will resolve yes if I think AI is better than me (at market close time, one year from market creation), and no otherwise.