MANIFOLD
By EOY 2034, what unexpected views of math will be changed by (superhuman) AI?
16
Ṁ395Ṁ588
2035
70%
At least one of the six left Millennium problems is found with a counter-example
35%
At least one of the six left Millennium problems is undecidable
25%
Neural Networks are explainable and can be trained without gradient descent with better performance.
25%
No AI will be powerful enough to directly (as a necessary condition) lead to a significant discovery in math.
16%
Shinichi Mochizuki is right or almost right about abc conjecture
12%
P vs. NP will be trivial (i.e., provable using simple methods taught in undergrad classes, e.g., with a counter-example)
Resolved
N/A
A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory

I keep the right to NA any question.

If any of the options were solved by human before superhuman math AI appear, it will resolve to NA

  • Update 2026-03-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering resolving this specific answer option ("A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory") as N/A, on the basis that such proposals already occur frequently and the option is therefore not meaningful.

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A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory

I'm pretty sure this is already happening every other week

@pietrokc You are right. This is stupid. Should I NA this?

@Sss19971997 I'm not betting but yeah I don't think this market makes a lot of sense. Anyone can propose theories

bought Ṁ25 NO

I'm also confused about happens if there's no superintelligent AI. Would those resolve "No" or N/A or what?

What if there is no superintelligent AI by EOY 2034?

@nathanwei We will have at least math-proof helpers; they might give new incentives.

@Sss19971997 Perhaps. But how would this resolve if there is no superhuman AI? The question pre-supposed superhuman AI.

@nathanwei i think i might add an answer that says, there will not be an superhuman AI

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