As of market creation (June 7, 2023) I place ~10% probability that aliens have visited Earth due to the recent UAP news.
The market will resolve YES if I deem the probability of aliens having visited Earth to be over 50% (more likely than not) on December 31st, 2023, resolves NO otherwise.
To ensure that I evaluate my own belief objectively, I will not bet on this market myself.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ25 | |
| 2 | Ṁ20 | |
| 3 | Ṁ15 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
People are also trading
Hey what are you thoughts on the universe and how vast it seems? what are you thoughts on the Multiverse theory?
Wow. This is very little betting on the probability of alien visitors and very much betting on your beliefs. I can't believe anyone is betting here without a better ideo of who you are, or what you see as a 50% probability. Ten percent now is really high so I'm guessing we have misaligned evidence and beliefs. I'm tempted to vote yes even though I think the odds of a visit is probably less than one in a million
U should probably change the close date to dec 31 11:59pm or jan 1
https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1287129300068515841
"Reminder: "interstellar travel" comes after "nanotech" on the tech scale. Actual aliens: - Could observe events using unseeable tiny robots, if they were hiding. - Would be hugely and blatantly visible, if they weren't hiding. - Do not need giant atmospheric ships, period."
@asmith yea this is one of the things that bugged me abt the whole UFO thing, and the reason why im still only giving it 10% - i currently dont see how an alien civilization advanced enough to reach earth could be indiscreet enough to be even seen much less captured
@VictorLi Is it possible that the captured alien technology/vehicle had been purposely placed here instead? Could they be observing how humans interact with their technology? i think i've seen animal documentaries where the researcher will leave an item or puzzle for the animal that it's studying to see if it can figure it out.
some more info about my world beliefs:
i dont usually believe in conspiracy theories (like deep state, anti vax, 5g, rothschilds, etc.)
i do, however, believe that we are living through an extremely important period of human history right now (due to things like the coming AGI singularity)
prior to the recent news i held <1% credence of aliens having visited earth
@VictorLi I think it's really interesting the US navy established a taskforce regarding UAPs (Establishment of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force > U.S. Department of Defense > Release). As a way to reduce the stigma that surrounds this topic, UAP is to be used in place of UFO. NASA recently held a panel on UAPs and put out a report. (Metallic flying orbs seen around the world, baffling NASA and the Pentagon - National | Globalnews.ca). (NASA publishes long-awaited report into UFOs and alien activity | indy100)
Big change in attitude about the topic. Pentagon director reveals new footage of unidentified flying object | CNN Politics
@VictorLi Just because it's not aliens doesn't mean there's nothing else interesting that could be going on.
@VictorLi i agree with you on all those points. it's frightening how people talk about where they will be in 50 years as if nothing will change due to AGI
the "US Government" is not one very smart and competent guy who ponders issues and makes declarations when he is convinced about something. It's millions of people each of whom have their own ideas and such. There are 10k+ people who could whistleblow about aliens and work in something adjacent to intelligence and aerospace and at least 1 in 20 people believe in aliens at the moment. so ....