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MANIFOLD
Red vs. Blue button except prediction market
6
Ṁ1kṀ25k
May 11
Red99.0%

If blue closes above 50%, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise, red resolves YES and blue resolves NO. (not the same as the original red/blue problem due to market incentives & weighting)

Market will close at a random time on May 9 eastern time (salted sha256 hash is 8e7262a02ff53ade3e846f1660944ed51a76450b02a038491c2a07d1fad34f8e). I will not trade after midnight on May 9th (excluding limit orders made before that time).

(This was changed from the previous question to be more like the actual button test)

Related: https://manifold.markets/vi/red-vs-blue-button-free-mana

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fixed the colors (there's a pencil icon if you hover over the color name, though it always appears on mobile. this is kinda unintuitive)

bought Ṁ2,000 YES

@mods Unrank?

Also, there's no provision for blue resolving YES?

@Quroe This is intended

@vi Is it possible for it to resolve YES?

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 95% order

@vi I think... I think you've created an infinite money printer here if somebody is willing to blow up a sacrificial account into the deep negative.

filled a Ṁ50 NO at 95% order

@Quroe Isnt this basically the same as markets that always resolve yes though

@vi No, because there are world lines where this does not resolve YES.

@Quroe If it resolves N/A how would it print infinite money

@vi This will take me a while to type out, and I need to do a real life task first. Let me get back to you on this, but I do see the line.

@Quroe If you're thinking of something like having the sacrificial account have a limit order on blue and then betting on red, that'll work for markets that always resolve yes as well.

@vi Basically, yeah. But you're giving people an outlet to do it here too.

bought Ṁ8,000 YES

Wait so why would you ever bet Blue

bought Ṁ250 NO

@Qoiuoiuoiu Moral superiority

bought Ṁ250 YES

@vi So just to confirm Red is guaranteed to resolve YES

(Or this market resolves N/A)

opened a Ṁ6,000 YES at 51% order

how do i change the colors

@duck_master How did you do it for your market?