Red vs. Blue button except prediction market

Ṁ1kṀ27k

resolved May 9

ALL

100%99.6%

Red

0.4%

Blue

If blue closes above 50%, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise, red resolves YES and blue resolves NO. (not the same as the original red/blue problem due to market incentives & weighting)

Market will close at a random time on May 9 eastern time (salted sha256 hash is 8e7262a02ff53ade3e846f1660944ed51a76450b02a038491c2a07d1fad34f8e). I will not trade after midnight on May 9th (excluding limit orders made before that time).

(This was changed from the previous question to be more like the actual button test)

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11:17 AM

Random bytes:

b6 91 d8 1a 64 bc 4f c6 01 b1 48 b5 7b 57 31 89

4b 08 83 c9 0e 8a 92 98 2e e7 9a ea 07 01 f5 6d

31 b2 ef 1d 27 b2 1c 98 48 8a 0a a4 e5 3f 74 d3

79 96 6d 56 56 7a 9d b2 1e 1a 69 e8 cb ca ea 7b

40 0e 36 a4 f9 e1 e0 de 2e a9 67 41 d9 fd d5 e4

e9 7c 8d 25 96 d4 0e de 75 d8 de a0 34 96 e7 52

d0 56 1a eb

I was inspired by this to create my own version where it resolves 50/50 instead of NA in the event that Blue has 50 or higher.

Um, is there anyone who believes that people have a moral responsibility to "save" others from losing mana? That would kinda defeat the purpose of this whole site...

fixed the colors (there's a pencil icon if you hover over the color name, though it always appears on mobile. this is kinda unintuitive)

New market that is more representative of the original question: https://manifold.markets/vi/red-vs-blue-button-free-mana (The old market (this one) has red earn mana by winning; the new one eliminates this)

Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)

48% chance. Resolves N/A. To join, bet 1 mana or more. If greater than 50% of holders at the end are blue holders, everyone gets 10 mana. If at least 50% are red holders, only red holders get 10 mana. Related: https://manifold.markets/vi/red-button-vs-blue-button-except-pr?r=dmk

bought Ṁ2,000 YES

@mods Unrank?

@Qoiuoiuoiu 👍

Also, there's no provision for blue resolving YES?

@Quroe This is intended

@vi Is it possible for it to resolve YES?

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 95% order

@Quroe No

@vi I think... I think you've created an infinite money printer here if somebody is willing to blow up a sacrificial account into the deep negative.

filled a Ṁ50 NO at 95% order

@Quroe Isnt this basically the same as markets that always resolve yes though

@vi No, because there are world lines where this does not resolve YES.

@Quroe If it resolves N/A how would it print infinite money

@vi This will take me a while to type out, and I need to do a real life task first. Let me get back to you on this, but I do see the line.

@Quroe If you're thinking of something like having the sacrificial account have a limit order on blue and then betting on red, that'll work for markets that always resolve yes as well.

@vi Basically, yeah. But you're giving people an outlet to do it here too.

@vi @Qoiuoiuoiu So, you're telling me that, if I want to save the economy and stop somebody from abusing this market for infinite mana, I'm morally bound to make it resolve N/A?